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JIAB-2026-WWTA

Robust Inference for Interrupted Time Series with Structural Breaks

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Submitted
Nov 5, 2026
Due
Nov 12, 2026
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Authors

Franco Rossi

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Abstract

Interrupted time series (ITS) designs are widely used in health policy evaluation, but standard estimators are sensitive to misspecification of the pre-trend. We propose a break-robust estimator based on local linear regression with data-adaptive bandwidth selection and derive its asymptotic distribution.

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