JIAB-2026-HTNR

Pre-registration Does Not Reduce False-Positive Rates: A Simulation Study

Rejected

Editor: Maya Henderson
Submitted: Sep 6, 2026
Due: Sep 6, 2026
Reviews: 1 of 1

Authors

Grace Park

Editor

Maya Henderson Handling editor for this submission.

Assigned editor: Maya Henderson Update the handling editor to rebalance workload or hand off the submission.

Abstract

We challenge the consensus that pre-registration reduces false-positive rates by running 10,000 simulated studies under researcher degrees of freedom. Under realistic outcome-switching scenarios, pre-registration reduces false positives by at most 8%, well below the commonly cited 50% figure.

Reviews

1 item

R1 Jack Thompson Submitted Sep 26, 2026 Completed

The simulation design has a critical flaw: it assumes researchers observe the true p-value before deciding whether to pre-register, which inverts the temporal logic of pre-registration. Under the correct assumption (pre-registration precedes data collection), the authors' own model predicts a 55% reduction in false positives. I do not recommend acceptance in the current form.

Files

1 manuscript

jiab_manuscript_001_01m6-p59x.pdf Author - Sep 6, 2026 Current

Reviewers

1 of 1 received

Drag names to change the reviewer order for people who have not been invited yet.

Jack Thompson

Status: Completed Invited: Sep 12, 2026Completed: Sep 26, 2026

Messages

2 messages

A Author Cover letter 3:30 PM Sep 6, 2026

We believe this simulation study raises important questions about the efficacy of pre-registration as a quality-control mechanism.

E Editor Rejection decision 3:30 PM October 1, 2026

Dear Dr. Park, Thank you for submitting your manuscript. After careful review, we regret to inform you that we cannot accept it for publication. The reviewer identified a fundamental issue with the simulation design: the model assumes researchers observe the p-value before deciding to pre-register, which reverses the causal logic of the intervention being studied. Under the correct temporal assumption, your own simulation predicts a 55% reduction — consistent with the literature you contest. We encourage you to revise the simulation design and resubmit to another venue. We wish you well with your research. Best regards, The Editors

Compose Message

Timeline

2 events

Rejected Oct 1, 2026

Waiting for Reviewers Sep 11, 2026

Status override

Override status only to correct a workflow state set in error. Notification actions should use Compose.